Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Explainer 4 on the Iranian nuclear deal

Explainer 4: Why didn't they get a better deal?
Because opponents of this diplomacy in Israel and in the GOP have not really been forthcoming on specifics of what would constitute a "better deal," we are left to conjecture. From what I can surmise, they want a deal like this:
  • Iran dismantles all nuclear infrastructure. No uranium enrichment. No plutonium reprocessing. Maybe even no nuclear energy.
  • Iran concedes to American/Israeli interests on a range of other issues, including handing over four Americans held prisoner in Iran, the Iranian ballistic missile programme, and Iranian military/covert actions around the region. 
  • I don't know, the Iranian government disappears and the Iranian people all of the sudden love America.

There is no basis for the United States to demand these things. Remember, Iran is guaranteed the right to peaceful nuclear energy under the NPT. Also, recall that the Iranian nuclear programme started about 50-odd years ago because THE US BUILT IT FOR THEM. There is also nothing in the NPT or in international law denying Iran the right to enrich its own nuclear fuel, and there are legitimate reasons why Iran would want to manufacture its own fuel supply.
The US has imposed the sanctions regime on Iran with the support of the international community by telling the international community that Iran was keen on violating international law (namely the NPT). If Iran is willing to accept a very, very highly scrutinising inspections regime to guarantee that they are not violating the NPT, and yet the US is still not satisfied, then our partners (and rivals) around the world have precious little reason to continue bearing costs to maintain the sanctions. They will simply no longer cooperate, and the sanctions regime that forced Iran to the table and which forced them to concede what they have will become a mere shell of itself, and it will lose pretty much all coercive force.

If Iran and the P5+1 were to come to a comprehensive agreement on the nuclear programme, but the US still refuses to accept Iran's nuclear concessions unless Iran also makes concessions on a whole range of other issues in which they are arguably not violating international law (certainly not international norms) and have no reason to concede on, not only will a deal be impossible, but maintaining the sanctions regime will also be impossible.  
From what I can tell from Israel's objections, they are hostile to the very idea of the US negotiating with an Iranian regime that is overtly and actively hostile to Israel. Those are certainly valid concerns, and the US has made strong commitments to Israeli security. But at the end of the day, Israel is not the only commitment or interest the US has in the region. The US and its Western partners cannot tolerate an indefinite geopolitical conflict with Iran, and they are not willing to invade Iran and institute an occupation regime.
If the past two years of Israeli foreign policy have offered any insight into how Israel negotiates with its enemies, we've learned that Israel simply doesn't do that. Israel wants its enemies destroyed. They had a golden opportunity to make real progress towards peace with Palestinians when Hamas and Fatah agreed to a unity government that would recognise Israel's right to exist. Israel rejected it out of hand because they don't want Hamas to exist. Instead, they let relations with Gaza deteriorate to the point of war, at which point they tried to resolve their issue with Hamas by playing whack-a-mole with bombs. They did not succeed.
Israel cannot destroy Iran. The US will not destroy Iran for Israel. Israel had best reconcile itself with the existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and maybe behave in such a fashion that Israel and Iran aren't at each others' throats.
But Joel! Iran doesn't even recognise Israel's right to exist! Iran thinks Israel is evil and should be wiped off the map!
1) The widely-circulated translation of Ahmedinejad's remarks is incorrect. He did not call for Israel to be destroyed. He said that the Zionist project of Israel should not exist. Not friendly, but also not "I will destroy you."
2) Pretty much every country in the Middle East outwardly speaks of Israel as an illegitimate state and an enemy, and yet they've gotten over themselves. Egypt got over it. Saudi Arabia got over it. Syria got over it. The Gulf states got over it. Turkey got over it. Hamas was willing to get over it before Israel went to war with them again. They all de facto treat Israel as a potentially rival but legitimate counterparty in regional geopolitics. If Israel stops launching covert ops against Iran and assassinating their scientists, Iran will get over it, too.

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